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© Haras Agromen 2026JMEN
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Formula history

Every change
is recorded.

The JMEN Ranking formula evolves with the sport. Every change to the calculation lands here before (or along with) deployment — version, date, reason, authors. No silent changes.

  1. Version 2.0.0Applied on · 2026-05-17

    Reinfrastructure — Glicko-2 parallel + confidence badge

    POINTS_ALGORITHM_VERSION goes from 1 to 2. The public formula (base × prestige × height × decay) stays the same — what changes is the addition of an internal Glicko-2 layer that produces a public badge: each horse now carries In formation / Provisional / Consolidated according to the statistical history of the rating.

    • **Glicko-2 parallel** (src/lib/ranking/glicko.ts): canonical implementation of Glickman's paper (2012), validated against the official example — rating ≈ 1464.06 / RD ≈ 151.52 / σ ≈ 0.05999. Does not replace the weighted sum; coexists as a measure of uncertainty.
    • **Confidence badge** (ConfidenceBadge.tsx): appears in ScoreBreakdownCard. Three states — In formation (≤2 events), Provisional (few events or high RD), Consolidated (settled history). Editorial copy; tooltip explains in one sentence.
    • **Empirical Monte Carlo backtest** (docs/data-pipeline/monte-carlo-backtest-2026-05-17.md): validates B1+H1 against no-decay formula and ELO. Decay works (rewards consistent journeyman over early-peaker who stopped). ELO produces nearly identical ranking to B1+H1 (Jaccard 0.82, Spearman 0.96) — confirms decision to keep Glicko parallel, not substitute.
    • **Empirical balance fairness** (docs/data-pipeline/balance-fairness-2026-05-17.md): compares STEP curve (current) vs CONVEX on 1960 real results. Top-20 Jaccard = 0.905, Spearman = 0.9994, 20/339 horses move ≥5 positions. Decision: KEEP STEP. MULTIPLIER_CURVE = 'step' now exported as constant in points.ts.
    • **No public leaderboard change**: ordering does not change, points do not change. Only the badge is added. Readers who only look at points continue to see points.
    Authorsranking-jmen-lab squad (Marechal presides, Bill backtest, Glickman Glicko-2 validation, Hilary keeps decay) + Glória JMEN (Anna writes tooltip) — owner direction (Fabio) in Plan Mode approved 2026-05-17.
    Joint meeting on 2026-05-17 opened the JMEN Reinfrastructure in 3 Acts. Act I (Formula v2.0) delivers the empirical validation that Bill had been requesting for 2 meetings and the confidence badge that Glickman defended. Two horses with the same JMEN score are not necessarily comparable — the badge gives public voice to uncertainty without exposing technical jargon.
  2. Version 1.4.0Applied on · 2026-05-13

    Gen 3 — expanded seal catalog (12 → 36)

    22 new automatic seals: 11 category debuts (6 heights + 5 CBH ages), 8 gamification seals, and 3 Legendary paths. Discovery ritual with rarity-aware motion added to the /selos collection page and horse profile.

    • **C6 — 11 category debut seals**: debut at 1.10m / 1.20m / 1.30m / 1.40m / 1.50m / 1.60m + debut in CN 4-8 years. Each height or age marks the first appearance. Debut at 1.60m is legendary (world-elite territory).
    • **C2 — 8 gamification seals**: Level Up, Height Master (5 podiums same height), Full Season (8+ events), Golden Form (3 consecutive top-5), Multi-State (3+ states), Right Foot (win on debut), Persistence, Inaugural State.
    • **3 Legendary paths**: National Crown (1st final ranking), GP Master (podium ≥1.55m), Founding Lineage (sire/dam among the 20 official stallions).
    • **Discovery ritual** (jmen-game-design squad): motion by rarity — common fade-up, rare gold glow pulse, legendary ring expand, secret subtle continuous breathing. Restraint > juice; no audio; <720ms.
    Authorsranking-jmen-lab squad + Glória JMEN (Cláudio achievement-architect) + jmen-game-design (Atelier directs ritual).
    Owner's request: heavy focus on achievement development + horse gamification. Cross-squad response: broad catalog respecting 'horse as protagonist' + Apple-Activity restraint. Non-negotiables preserved (Hilary, Blow, Marcelo, Vasco vetoes).
  3. Version 1.3.0Applied on · 2026-05-13

    Composite multiplier — height × prestige

    The event height now has its own multiplier (1.10m → 1.00 ... 1.60m → 2.00) separate from event prestige (CSN ×1.05 ... CSI 5★ ×1.50). Final points = base × height × prestige × decay.

    • heightMultiplier: 8 discrete steps by height (0.80 for <1.10m up to 2.00 for ≥1.60m). Each 10cm step weighs ~15% more.
    • eventTypePrestige: 6 separate levels (CN regional 1.00 / CSN 1.05 / CSI 2★ 1.15 / CSI 3★ 1.25 / CSI 4★ 1.40 / CSI 5★ or CSI-W 1.50).
    • Before (v1.2): a horse at 1.20m and a horse at 1.40m in the same 'amateur' tier received the same weight. Now: 1.40m is worth 30% more than 1.20m, regardless of tier.
    • Examples: 1st place in CSN 1.40m goes from 13.0 points (v1.2) to 15.75 (v1.3); 1st in CSI 5★ 1.60m goes from 20.0 to 30.0.
    AuthorsOrion (aiox-master) conducting cross-squad deliberation ranking-jmen-lab + Glória JMEN — owner's direction (Fabio).
    Owner's request: 'height should have a points multiplier'. Correct insight — the technical jump from 1.20m to 1.40m is huge; treating them equally within the amateur tier distorted the ranking. Maintains backward-compat in tiers/labels/badges.
  4. Version 1.2.0Applied on · 2026-05-13

    3rd reading mode — By height

    In addition to Overall and By age (Young Horses), the JMEN Ranking now has leaderboards by discrete height (1.10m / 1.20m / 1.30m / 1.40m / 1.50m / 1.60m).

    • New route /ranking-jmen/altura/[altura] (slugs 1m10..1m60) with leaderboard filtered by height ±5cm.
    • Same formula (decay + drop-best-N cap) applied within the height scope — not new math, new slice.
    • Leaderboard toggle gets a third option 'By height' that leads to 1m30 (median) with a switcher for the 6 heights.
    • The /sobre page gets a '3 reading modes' section explaining the Overall / By age / By height cuts.
    Authorsranking-jmen-lab squad — owner's direction (Fabio) + Claude execution. JMEN scope reinforced (founding principle 2026-05-13 stamped in domain-scope.md).
    Owner's request: cover all relevant heights of Brazilian show jumping (1.10m to 1.60m) so that JMEN horses appear segmented by the technical level they compete at. Doesn't replace By age — adds a third cut that coexists.
  5. Version 1.1.0Applied on · 2026-05-13

    Temporal decay + anti-overload cap

    Old results lose weight continuously (12-month half-life); only the top 15 results from each horse count toward the ranking.

    • B1 — Exponential temporal decay with 12-month half-life. A win today weighs 1.0; from 12 months ago weighs 0.5; from 24 months ago weighs 0.25.
    • H1 — Drop-best-N cap: a horse can compete in as many events as it wants, but only the top 15 count toward the ranking. Anti-overload (animal welfare) and rewards event selection over volume.
    • Aggregated metrics (totalPoints, victories, podiums, primary tier) recomputed from results kept after cap.
    Authorsranking-jmen-lab squad — Bill (sabermetrics), Hilary (voice of the horse, technical veto), Glickman (rating systems)
    Squad inaugural meeting on 2026-05-13. Hilary exercised technical veto against formula that incentivized excessive participation. Bill pointed out that a victory 3 years ago weighing as much as a victory 3 months ago distorts the 'current form snapshot'.
  6. Version 1.0.0Applied on · 2025-09-01

    Launch — base × multiplier

    Initial version. Points = base by placement × multiplier by event importance. Coverage: FPH, FHMG, SHBr, FEERJ, FPRH.

    • Base by placement (official CBH/CNS): 1st=10, 2nd=8, 3rd=6, 4th=5, 5th=4, 6th-10th=3, 11th+=2 (classified), with fault=1, eliminated=0.
    • Multiplier by event type: CSI 4-5★ / CSI-W: 2.0 · CSI 2-3★: 1.5 · CSN / CBS: 1.2 · CN regional: 1.0.
    • Tie-breaker order: victories → podiums → average multiplier.
    • Two reading modes: Consolidated (CN by age) and Unified (cross-category).
    AuthorsHaras Agromen technical team
    Initial version aligned to the CBH/CNS scoring model, optimized for Young Horses.
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